Kerry Emanuel

Hurricanes are rare but violent storms that are the leading source of insured losses worldwide, and a major cause of human suffering even in developed nations such as the U.S. where recent Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy had devastating consequences. The average interval between major hurricanes in affected areas is more than a human generation, ample time for communities to forget the last big one, and infrequent enough that historical statistics are woefully inadequate for assessing hurricane risk. After reviewing the nature and character of hurricanes, I will describe how the application of both paleoclimate techniques and physical principles has allowed us to make far more robust estimates of hurricane risk, and at the same time estimate how changing sea level and tropical climate might affect hurricane risk over the next century.